Dr. WEATHER
• 12/7/2008 - QUICK LOOK AT VERMONT WEATHER NEXT 1-2 WEEKS
Powder to packed powder conditions exist across most of Vermont with loose granular conditons at Bolton Valley, Burke Mountain, Okemo, Smugglers' Notch. Sugarbush has 32 of 111 trails open as of early Sunday morning; Stowe 22 of 116 trails; with Killingotn the most-62 trails open.
An intense storm system is several hundred miles off the south New Jersey coast this morning. The fact it is so far east, limits the amount of heavy snow that would fall across New England. Nevertheless, an upper level disturbance swinging across southern New England and very cold air from the Great Lakes will help to create Lake Effect and mountain enhanced snows through later this afternoon. Up to 6-10" might fall by early this evening at Jay Peak with at least 3-6" at Stowe, Smugglers' Notch and some 1-4" across the White Mountains of New Hampshire and across central Vermont, such as Killington. Sometimes, heavier snows could fall with lake effect. Strong winds of 30-40 MPH will usher down the coldest weather of the season with readings falling into the single numbers for lows by Monday am across northern New England and even cold above 3,000 feet.
As warmer air attempts to move north byu Tuesday, light snow will dot northern and central New England, in which places like Sugarbush to Stowe and Jay Peak could see 1-4" and perhaps a dusting to 2" across areas like Stratton to Okemo. Some computer models then have a pretty modest ice event of central Vermont, snow and ice in the north and rain in the southern areas during Tuesday night and Wednesday as readings warm into the low 30's north and low 40's south. Winds could pick up to 30-40 MPH Wednesday and could perhaps be even warmer. This will cause freeze-thawing across most of New England. Temps will fall back again by Friday and the weekend of the 13th and 14th with light snows and improved snow-making but some hard-pack conditions.
Given a lack of a Greenland Block--or negative NAO index, as we call it, I don't expect any major 1-2 foot dumps over the next week or two, but there should be several chances for light snow at places like Jay Peak, Stowe to Burke Mountain as we head through the weekend of the 13th-14th and again around the 16th or 17th, while central and southern Vermont, sees more frequent freeze-thawing into mid-month and mixed precipitation from Killington south to Okemo, Mt. Snow, Acutney, etc. Just before Christmas, depending on a northern Pacific ridge and how far north she is, it is "possible" a slightly more consistent colder pattern could ensue for the Northeast with possibly a bit more snow, but until then, freeze-thawing and varying temps will be the rule with the best powder being across the Canadian/N. Vermont border.
One note, on Thursday the 12th..a storm system will be heading northast of D.C. and this could bring some light snow to the Berkshires and far southern New England while most of Vermont sees just flurries over southern sections and dry weather up north with seasonable late week temps. Again, by about the 14th, a clipper could bring a few inches of nice powder to central and northern areas, to next weekend may see some improvement, but crusty in spots due to this week's freeze-thawing, especially over central and southern Vermont
Roemer
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• 12/6/2008 - North American Summary focusing on Great Lakes by Roger Hill
• 12/5/2008 - Best Snow depths across the West by Roger Hill
• 12/5/2008 - More active pattern could blast the west after the 13th of December. A look at the PDO Index and late December weather for New England-Roemer
PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE WEST AFTER THE 12TH OR 13TH
If you are planning on heading out west to the Cascades, Heavenly, Lake Tahoe, Snowbird, Alta (for example), you will be in luck after about the 13th-15th of December as a pattern change will occur. Major snows, in excess of 1-2 feet may blast areas like Mt. Baker, Crystal Mountain to the Tahoe region and perhaps at least 6-12" of snow and maybe a whole lot more in the Cottonwood Valley of Utah to California. Alot more will be needed, but at least this is a start.
For the last few weeks,a strong eastern Pacific ridge, for the most part has blocked major storms from entering into places like Utah and sections of British Columbia, Alberta and the Cascades.
WHAT IS THE PDO INDEX?
Due to a climatological phenomena known as the PDO (Pacific Decadel Oscillation Index), historically, but not always, any strong eastern Pacific ridge, that would normally block storms, begins to break down later in December or January. In turn, this often opens the door for more important snows from the Tetons and Utah and the Cascades and occasionally throughout the Sierras. Though this is not written in stone, and teleconnections (As meteorologists call them) can vary from solar acivity to La Nina (right now we have a very weak La Nina at best). The east, on the hand, tends to see more freeze-thawing. Hence, after some great early season skiing the next 10 days, much of New England may see wide temperature swings and freeze thawing into mid-late month. Some snow? Yes, but also mixed precip and thawing, especially over central and southern New England after the 13th or 14th. In fact, even the middle of next week we will see readings back into the 30's to near 40 for a few days over parts of central and southern New England
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• 12/3/2008 - JACKSON HOLE TO COLORADO AND NEW ENGLAND TO GET NICE SNOWS...COMPLEX EASTERN SYSTEM AROUND THE 10TH-11TH--ROEMER
Very often, Jackson Hole gets their best snow on a NW flow with moisture coming in off the Pacific and cold high pressure moving across the Midwest. A series of disturbances this weekend and especially Monday, may bring 1-2 feet of snow to the Tetons and it is really needed. It is possible that in about 8-10 days, another huge snowfall could hit the Tetons to Big Sky Montana, with cold air daming to the east of the Rockies and Tetons.
A foot or more of snowfall will fall from Vail to Steamboat Springs and much of northern Colorado by Mid-Late December, the main cold weather will be over the Midwest with the storm track in the east coast. After decent snows coming up this weekend, an intense storm could bring huge rains to parts of the east coast around December 10th or 11th with widespread big snows of 1-2 feet in parts of NW New England. Roger Hill and others will have updates on the Podcast page about these systems. It does appear, however, that mixed rain, sleet and snow will affect the northern White Mountains, N. Greens and Maine around the 10th or 11th with some light showers further south. This temporary freeze/thawing will affect some of the nice powder that will blasting New England ski areas this Sunday. However, temps will dive back down into the teens and 20's for highs and single numbers for lows by the 12th or so with more improved snow-making conditions and additional chances for some snow over New England
It appears as if Utah to the Tahoe region will remain under a below normal snowfall trend into mid-late December. The best chance for snows at Alta/Snowbird and the Cascades may be with a breakdown of the eastern Pacific ridge around the 12th or 13th of December. Amounts could exceed 6-12".
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• 12/3/2008 - New England JAY / STOWE / MT ROYAL / SUGAR LOAF by SnoManJo
• 12/3/2008 - JAY PEAK, WHITEFACE TO STOWE SNOWS WITH 6-12" by Dr Weather
LOTS OF MOUNTAIN ENHANCED SNOWS WITH 6-12" LIKELY JAY PEAK, WHITEFACE TO STOWE AND AT LEAST 4-8" AT SUGARBUSH AND KILLINGTON LIKELY THIS WEEKEND. look for southern vermont to even see 2-5" of snow this weekend with great snow making into next week
light rain showers are likely on Thursday ahead of a cold front with temps 30's north and 40's south
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• 12/3/2008 - SUGARLOAF MAINE IN BATTER'S BOX by Dr Weather
SUGARLOAF MAINE IN BATTER'S BOX FOR 6-12" OF SNOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE WIND HOLD MONDAY AM DUE TO STRONG WINDS OF OVER 50 MPH
SNOWS OF AT LEAST 5-10" LIKELY OVER WHITE MOUNTAINS LIKE CANNON TO LOON AND WILDCAT
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• 12/1/2008 - December 1 2008 NEW ENGLAND is SKI COUNTRY by SnoMAnJO
• 12/1/2008 - Killington, VT / Sunday River, ME / Alta, UT / by SNoMAnJO
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About Me
Jim Roemer was given the nickname Dr. Weather from Stowe Mountain in 2001, due to his uncanny accuracy in forecast snowfall patterns, sometimes weeks in advance. The name has stuck every since. Jim has become a household meteorologist in the ski industry with thousands of skiers depending on his forecast to make both short term and longer term plans as to which slopes to hit. While many weather services have automated reports, in an age where life has become so impersonal, at times, Jim's reports add a unique freshness of honesty, exhuburance, personality and humor without sacrificing accuracy. "Second guessing computer models is what I do best", Jim says.
Jim Roemer helped develop Freese-Notis's commodity weather forecast division back in the 1980's and early 1990's and was a frequent guest on CNBC-TV and Bloomberg. Today Jim
has done considerable research and lecturing on global warming, plays competitive tennis and is a crazed skier.
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