Dr. WEATHER
• 12/7/2008 - QUICK LOOK AT VERMONT WEATHER NEXT 1-2 WEEKS
Powder to packed powder conditions exist across most of Vermont with loose granular conditons at Bolton Valley, Burke Mountain, Okemo, Smugglers' Notch. Sugarbush has 32 of 111 trails open as of early Sunday morning; Stowe 22 of 116 trails; with Killingotn the most-62 trails open.
An intense storm system is several hundred miles off the south New Jersey coast this morning. The fact it is so far east, limits the amount of heavy snow that would fall across New England. Nevertheless, an upper level disturbance swinging across southern New England and very cold air from the Great Lakes will help to create Lake Effect and mountain enhanced snows through later this afternoon. Up to 6-10" might fall by early this evening at Jay Peak with at least 3-6" at Stowe, Smugglers' Notch and some 1-4" across the White Mountains of New Hampshire and across central Vermont, such as Killington. Sometimes, heavier snows could fall with lake effect. Strong winds of 30-40 MPH will usher down the coldest weather of the season with readings falling into the single numbers for lows by Monday am across northern New England and even cold above 3,000 feet.
As warmer air attempts to move north byu Tuesday, light snow will dot northern and central New England, in which places like Sugarbush to Stowe and Jay Peak could see 1-4" and perhaps a dusting to 2" across areas like Stratton to Okemo. Some computer models then have a pretty modest ice event of central Vermont, snow and ice in the north and rain in the southern areas during Tuesday night and Wednesday as readings warm into the low 30's north and low 40's south. Winds could pick up to 30-40 MPH Wednesday and could perhaps be even warmer. This will cause freeze-thawing across most of New England. Temps will fall back again by Friday and the weekend of the 13th and 14th with light snows and improved snow-making but some hard-pack conditions.
Given a lack of a Greenland Block--or negative NAO index, as we call it, I don't expect any major 1-2 foot dumps over the next week or two, but there should be several chances for light snow at places like Jay Peak, Stowe to Burke Mountain as we head through the weekend of the 13th-14th and again around the 16th or 17th, while central and southern Vermont, sees more frequent freeze-thawing into mid-month and mixed precipitation from Killington south to Okemo, Mt. Snow, Acutney, etc. Just before Christmas, depending on a northern Pacific ridge and how far north she is, it is "possible" a slightly more consistent colder pattern could ensue for the Northeast with possibly a bit more snow, but until then, freeze-thawing and varying temps will be the rule with the best powder being across the Canadian/N. Vermont border.
One note, on Thursday the 12th..a storm system will be heading northast of D.C. and this could bring some light snow to the Berkshires and far southern New England while most of Vermont sees just flurries over southern sections and dry weather up north with seasonable late week temps. Again, by about the 14th, a clipper could bring a few inches of nice powder to central and northern areas, to next weekend may see some improvement, but crusty in spots due to this week's freeze-thawing, especially over central and southern Vermont
Roemer
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About Me
Jim Roemer was given the nickname Dr. Weather from Stowe Mountain in 2001, due to his uncanny accuracy in forecast snowfall patterns, sometimes weeks in advance. The name has stuck every since. Jim has become a household meteorologist in the ski industry with thousands of skiers depending on his forecast to make both short term and longer term plans as to which slopes to hit. While many weather services have automated reports, in an age where life has become so impersonal, at times, Jim's reports add a unique freshness of honesty, exhuburance, personality and humor without sacrificing accuracy. "Second guessing computer models is what I do best", Jim says.
Jim Roemer helped develop Freese-Notis's commodity weather forecast division back in the 1980's and early 1990's and was a frequent guest on CNBC-TV and Bloomberg. Today Jim
has done considerable research and lecturing on global warming, plays competitive tennis and is a crazed skier.
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